Ukraine-Russia war latest: Heavy fighting around key eastern cities; drone attacks reported across Ukraine (2024)

By Sean Bell, military analyst

Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron was in Kyiv this week to reiterate UK support to Ukraine.

Meeting with President Zelenskyy, Lord Cameron detailed how the uplift in defence spending announced by Rishi Sunak last week, including £3bn multi-year funding for Ukraine and the largest ever donation of military equipment, would help ensure Ukraine has what it needs to win.

The donation of military equipment would include the provision of precision-guided bombs, and air defence missiles and equipment for 100 mobile air defence teams to enable Ukraine to shoot down Russia's drones and missiles.

However, Lord Cameron also made an important announcement that was less widely reported - that it was up to Kyiv to decide how these weapons were to be used.

Although the West was shocked at Russia's decision to invade Ukraine in February 2022, Ukraine is not a member of NATO and the West was reluctant to provide overt support to Ukraine for fear of precipitating a direct NATO confrontation with Russia.

However, the UK has consistently been "forward-leaning" in providing military support to Ukraine, initially through the provision of anti-tank weapons, then main battle tanks - Challenger II - before more recently providing long-range Storm Shadow missiles.

Although the US has also provided ATACMS missiles, it has consistently advised that Ukraine is not to use any Western-provided weapons to attack targets on Russian soil.

Lord Cameron's announcement that this limitation may have been lifted for UK-supplied weapons could be evidence of increasing Western concern over the current tide of the war.

Russia's military is on the offensive on the frontline - where it is capitalising on Ukraine's current shortage of vital weapons and ammunition to push forward.

If these tactical advances were to translate into a major Russian breakthrough later this summer, the prospects for Ukraine could be bleak.

The UK package of weapons also included precision-guided bombs - these are air-launched, have limited range, so appear to have limited utility to Ukraine, so why have they been offered?

One reason is that the UK weapons lockers are bare - supplies that Britain is prepared to offer have run dry, and although the UK government has placed the national defence industry onto a "war footing", it will still take time before sustainable and significant supplies of weapons start to flow.

However, if Ukraine is to reverse the current Russian battlefield momentum, it needs to explore new ways to fight back.

Permission to attack inside Russia itself should enable Ukraine to expand its target list.

Although the Ukrainian fighters do not have the requisite clearances and capability to deliver Western precision-guided bombs, in desperate times such clearances can be secured in record time.

But how could they be used?

The Russians have air superiority over the frontlines, and it would be both dangerous and difficult for the Ukrainian air forces to intervene decisively - even with new weapons.

However, if the initial batch of F-16 fighters being donated by the West were to arrive early this summer, this could provide more choices for Ukraine.

Indeed, that might include targeting Russian forces in Crimea, or conducting airstrikes against military targets - such as logistics supply lines - inside Russian territory.

Although this latest announcement might have limited direct impact on Russian momentum on the frontline, it has the potential to offer new options to Ukraine to change the tide of the war.

And, recent history suggests that where the UK leads, other nations soon follow.

However, the "elephant in the room" is the strength of Western resolve to stop Russia's brutal invasion.

Time is not on Ukraine's side.

Western reticence to confront Russia is understandable - indeed, President Putin is relying on it.

But appeasem*nt has not proven historically to be a credible strategy.

NATO's continuing military exercises near Russia's borders are proof that the alliance is preparing for a war with Moscow, a spokeswoman for Russia's foreign ministry has said.

"According to their scenario, coalition's actions against Russia are being practiced using all the instruments, including hybrid and conventional weapons," Maria Zakharova said.

"We have to admit that NATO is seriously preparing for a'potential conflict' with us."

Named Steadfast Defender, one of NATO's biggest military drills since the Cold War allows members to practice repelling an invasion by Russian forces.

The next phase of the four-month drill takes place throughout May and will include some 90,000 NATO servicemen.

A Russian suspected cybercrime kingpin has pleaded partially guilty to money laundering charges in the US, Russian state media is reporting.

TASS cited Alexander Vinnik's lawyer as saying that, as a result of the plea bargain, he now expected him to get a prison term of less than 10 years.

"He pleaded guilty on a restricted number of charges," his lawyer reportedly said.

"The culmination of the negotiations was a deal with the prosecutor's office. We expect that the prison term will be up to 10 years."

Vinnik is accused of laundering more than $4bn through the digital currency bitcoin, and was arrested in 2017 in Greece at the request of the US, although Moscow has repeatedly demanded he be returned to Russia.

The US Department of Justice has said Vinnik "allegedly owned, operated, and administrated BTC-e, a significant cybercrime and online money laundering entity that allowed its users to trade in bitcoin with high levels of anonymity and developed a customer base heavily reliant on criminal activity".

The maximum penalty for the charges against Vinnik is
55 years in prison.

Just under 900 Russian soldiers are killed or wounded in Ukraine every single day, the UK's Ministry of Defence has said.

"It is likely that Russia's casualty rate will again increase over the next two months as they renew dedicated offensive operations in easter Ukraine," it said in an intelligence update.

"This follows a slight decrease in the pace of operations over the past two months since the fall of Avdiivka," it added.

The MoD assessed that more than 465,000 Russian losses have recorded since the beginning of the war, with an average so far this year of 899 casualties per day.

As we reported in our 7.23am and 8.24am posts, some 13 Russian drones struck central and northeastern parts of Ukraine overnight.

We can now report that another explosion has been reported, at around 10am local time (8am UK time), according to the city of Kharkiv's mayor.

"An explosion was heard in Kharkiv. Be careful,"Igor Terekhov said.

We've no further detail as to what caused it or if there are any casualties, but we'll stay across it.

We've also received some more images of firefights attempting to put out the blazes caused by the drone attack overnight...

Russia has shot down four US-made long-range missiles fired at the Crimean peninsula, the country's defence ministry reports.

It said the missiles were Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) - the kind shipped by Washington to Ukraine in recent weeks.

No further details were shared, and Ukraine has not commented on the claims.

Russian officials similarly claimed on Tuesday that Ukraine had attacked Crimea with ATACMS in an attempt to pierce air defences of the peninsula, which was annexed by Russia in 2014, but that six had been shot down.

ATACMS missiles have a range up to 300km (190 miles).

Russia's defence minister is continuing public duties despite rumours that Vladimir Putin is seeking to punish him for his lack of success in Ukraine.

Sergei Shoigu presented Gold Star medals to "servicemen who showed courage and heroism in carrying out the tasks of a special military operation", according to the ministry, referencing the war in Ukraine.

"The head of the Russian military department congratulated the servicemen, thanked them for their exemplary fulfilment of tasks and wished them further success in their military service," it added.

The Institute for the Study of War had earlier noted a meeting on Thursday between Mr Putin and a regional governor as a potential sign that the president was seeking to undermine Mr Shoigu.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Tula oblast governor and known Wagner Group-affiliate Alexei Dyumin on 2 May, further indicating that Putin may be seeking to reduce Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu's power by balancing him with rivals," it said in a statement.

As we reported in our 7.23am post, some 13 Russian drones struck central and northeastern parts of Ukraine overnight.

These images, from Kharkiv, show firefighters scrambling to put out the resulting blazes.

Heavy fighting is continuing around two key cities to the east of Ukraine.

Kyiv's forces repelled more than 60 attacks in villages near Avdiivka and Bakhmut, Ukraine's general staff of the armed forces said in its morning update.

The US-based thinktank the Institute for the Study of War similarly noted fierce fighting near the settlement of Chasiv Yar, which lies to Bakhmut's west.

A top Ukrainian commander told The Times yesterday that Russia has a 10-to-1 artillery advantage over Ukrainian forces defending the area and holds "total air superiority".

A senior Ukrainian intelligence chief said it's "probably a matter of time" before the settlement falls.

At least six people have been injured after a swarm of Russian drones hit Ukrainian regions overnight.

The Ukrainian air force said Russian forces launched 13 Iranian-made Shahed drones, targeting regions in the northeast and centre of the country.

All of the 13 drones were downed, the air force said, but critical infrastructure, as well as commercial and residential buildings, were damaged in the Kharkiv and Dnipro regions by the resulting falling debris.

A 13-year-old child and a woman are being treated in hospital, according to the governor of Kharkiv, while two other women were treated at one of the sites.

In the industrial Dnipropetrovsk region, two people were wounded.